Kosova
As this issue will be printed, the thirtieth day of protests of
citizens and students in Belgrade will end. Zajedno's protests,
besides becoming a national display of fun, have recently started
illustrating its organization logic - no spontaneity and
superficiality, played inside but dictated from the outside - by a
population, whose best news in the past six years has maybe been the
victory of the basketball selection in Athens.
Thirty days later, in the whole mess of the electoral theft, which
has justly (or, is it finally?) affected Serbia - Kosova Albanians,
who in the past six years remained convinced in their capacity to
decipher the timing for proper social mobilization - can hardly
conceal the enthusiasm about the path that the ordinary Serbian
citizen has chosen to eventually change the address of the sources of
all the problems he/she faces. Maybe recently they were even
surprised with supportive statements coming from Albanians, a public
letter of Adem Demagi, the statement of the Albanian foreign
minister, Tritan Shehu, or the minute of silence the Belgrade
protesters dedicated to the killed teacher, Feriz Blakgori - but,
judging upon the pronouncements of the Albanian leadership in Kosova,
the principled support of the Serbian events, has no intention to
move from its starting point: communiques and press conferences.
There is no doubt among the leading political subjects of Kosova: the
struggle of the Belgrade "strollers", despite their devotion and
dedication, remains their internal affair...
How much does the silence of Albanians help or harm Milosevic?
According to Behlul Beqaj, chairman of the Association of
Politologues of Kosova, "the internal Serbian destabilization"
could be a good chance for the "forces of active politics", for
undertaking concrete steps to change the situation". referring
to Demagi's activation within the PPK, of whom he says: "...he
is again putting at stake his authority for the sake of the
national question. Beqaj adds "that realistically, the threatened
Serbian government can't defend itself successfully, neither can it
protect the state".
The last statement of the LDK also represents an attempt to
remain faithful to declarative supports to "the attempts for
democratization in Serbia" - statements that were led in the past
couple of days by the official voice of the Albanian TV, together
with the disclosed statements of the political leadership of
Albania.
How much is the present moment understood as the adequate moment for
a concrete political manoeuvre of Kosova Albanians? For the beginning
of protests? Demonstrations? According to the
statements of political observers in Prishtink and in Belgrade, any
of their attempts to go out on the streets, will not only
deteriorate their situation, but also the attempts of Milosevic's
opposition to "dethrone" him. In this regard, almost all the
asked offered a joint precedent: Milosevic mobilized Serbs
through Kosova in 1989, but also closed the problems at home with war
in Croatia.
Chances are that the activities of this kind in Kosova would be used
by him for the new mobilization of masses that he needs so much.
Consequently, Albanians in Prishtink are expected to give only
formal support to the Belgrade "strollers", which according to
Belgrade sociologist Dusan Janjic, "still remain nationalist, but
ever more less chauvinistic".
If the actual moment would even be understood as the right time for
any Albanian protesting "counter-attack", then the well
informed Albanians would think of one address, although it is
still covered up with mystery - the UGK (Liberation Army of
Kosova). Whoever composes it, it's absolute silence during the
thirty-days long tremors in Serbia can only be outlined as a
clear political posture.
If Serbian protests will continue till the end of the year - and
there is no reason for them to stop - Milosevic and his
government will be absolutely not interested in implementing the
agreement on education. The Albanian leadership has declared that if
the agreement is not implemented, then this would incite the use of
other methods. Which, having in mind the existing arsenal they would
oppose, would not differ much from Belgrade's
"strolls". Neither would the so much proclaimed political
activation of Albanians and the internal political movements
(Demagi) could have a different manoeuvring space but, among
others, the civil disobedience on the streets of our centers.
What do Kosova Albanians do nowadays? Are they convinced that
their silence continues being the noisiest weapon the have?
Or are they simply queuing in line for "strolls"?
Interview
Miladin Zivotic, a '68 dissident & member of the Belgrade Circle
KOHA: What do you think about the Kosova Albanian posture, as the
massive protests in Belgrade continue? Do you think that
Albanians should also join the battle against Milosevic's regime?
ZIVOTIC: Always the promotion and expansion of civil freedoms is
sought, all citizens of one country are expected to participate
peacefully, without fearing the consequences that would lead
towards the exacerbation of the conflict, in the case of Serbia,
between different entities.
Nevertheless, I fear that the regime would quite well use the
chance - any kind of political activity of Albanians in Kosova - to
undertake repressive measures. I believe that people should be very
careful right now. I personally believe that Demagi's
support to this civic initiative was great, regardless of the
reactions that it could cause in Kosova among the Albanians. The
people's reaction in Belgrade towards his letter of support was
really positive. I welcome this, and in this sense, I believe
that something should be happening in Kosova too. But, what? How?
Believe, I really don't know.
KOHA: How do you evaluate Milosevic's counter-manifestations?
ZIVOTIC: They are really weak. They are just too much organized by
the political leaders that are supportive of Milosevic; I
believe that they can't last long and I believe that the regime can't
gain anything with them - especially in the sense of
bringing back the internal and external reputation, However, the
electoral theft is something really brutal. Stubbornness and the
criminal posture in regard to the basic precondition of any rule of
law - the respect of the electoral results - make me believe that the
counter-attacks of the regime through the last meetings, aim to prove
what has been insisted on on the state TV: that the ruling party and
president Milosevic has the support of the
majority of the people. They can't illustrate it, aboslutely.
Thus, Milosevic's legitimacy is disappearing on the run,
therefore today, the only issue is to try and find a way to give away
the power without much noise, in a democratic way. Right
now, the best moment would be the next elections.
This is what I see as the core of the Serbian problem, today.
The application of any violent method, will not lead towards
democratization. Only democratic struggle allows the change of
power. This is the reason why so many people go out on the
streets.
KOHA: Isn't the influence of the leaders of "Zajedno" on the
people a bit surprising?
ZIVOTIC: True. A big part of the protesters aren't even followers of
Draskovic, Djindjic, not to mention Vesna Pesic's Civic
League. The people are defending the law, but also to prove that the
rule can be changed.
KOHA: What do you think Milosevic's next steps will be?
ZIVOTIC: I believe that the regime is deep into considerable
concessions, first of all because of the presence of the
international commission - which I believe will do its job in a
correct way. I don't see how will the regime ignore the
conclusions of the international commission, because there are
too many facts that corroborate the electoral fraud. After all, it
was the regime that invited the commission.
KOHA: Do you think that the regime could create the conditions
to place the opposition outside the law, i.e. to establish the
state of emergency and even maybe the intervention of the army?
ZIVOTIC: I believe that the application of this kind of obedience has
long ago passed. Naturally, nothing can be forecasted: none of the
pressure and brutalities can be excluded. Nevertheless,
I think that the regime could only start its bloody end with the use
of this kind of brutality. Bloody and absolute.
Moreover, the situation in the army now is disastrous. Having in mind
the results of the terrible destructions during the war in the former
Yugoslavia and its disgusting consequences - the
regime could hardly count on proclaiming the state of emergency or
martial law. Particularly, having in mind the democratic
processes that are ongoing in the neighboring countries.
KOHA: Do you think that "Zajedno" is becoming a controlling
factor in the actual political scene of Serbia? Do you believe
that Kosova Albanians should count on this political force as the new
negotiating address?
ZIVOTIC: I would be a bit careful, because until recently, this
coalition was leading an electoral campaign for the federal
parliament which I believe was catastrophic, which was wrapped
with a disgusting greater-Serb nationalism. But today, in order to
prove that it is an important political factor which should
be counted on by the international community in the efforts for the
democratization of Serbia, this political coalition replaced and
their political behavior, trying to neutralize its
nationalistic framework. On the streets, this nationalism is
almost invisible. It is precisely because of this reason that
Belgrade honored a minute of silence for the Albanian teacher
killed by the police in Kosova. This is a very important event,
despite the fact that a large number of citizens of Belgrade was long
contaminated with nationalism. However weak it may be, what is
happening in Belgrade these days is a process of civil
consciousness-building that should be strongly applauded.
Interview
Dusan Janjic, founder of the European Movement in Serbia
KOHA: The protests of the citizens in Belgrade haven't stopped
for over a month, the OSCE delegation was here, while the Serbian
regime seems to go through its hardest times ever. In all of
this, the Kosova Albanians and the solution of their problem seem to
have stagnated. How would you evaluate an hypothetical
Albanian engagement, similar to the Belgrade protests, especially
having in mind the efforts to activate the political life in
Kosova?
JANJIC: I believe that if Albanians would join these protests,
it would be a wrong evaluation of their leadership. If such
political manifestations would take place, maybe they would sound as
follows: "now we can put our demands, while they (Serbs) have no way
to oppose them, because they are extremely weak".
Milosevic used such a justification in the case of Croatia in
1991, when the full mobilization of the population started and
when he marginalized the opposition. In the case of Kosova, I
don't believe there would be a real repressive reaction, but
chances are that he would start with tactical negotiations in
order to win the necessary points he needs for his international
reputation, highly unestimated lately.
Naturally, the real repression would come later. This would be
a counter-reaction, i.e. a projected chauvinism.
This would be the first possibility.
The second option would be the activation of the Albanian
question not in Kosova but in Macedonia. Anyhow, I am deeply
convinced that actually there are no conditions for the peaceful and
democratic solution of the Kosova question.
KOHA: Foreign analyzers claim that a big burden of the present
opposition protests is the greater-Serb nationalism...
JANJIC: True. I tend to believe that nationalism will be the
feature of all political movements in the former Yugoslavia in
the next coming years. It is a big misfortune that nationalism
should be used still as a mobilizing factor, but often this
should be taken as an indispensable evil, in this phase. What is
worth mentioning is that greater-Serb chauvinism is decreasing
in the "strolling" protests. That could be noticed with the
reaction to Demagi's letter and the minute of silence for the
Albanian teacher. This should be greeted...
In regard to the actual situation in Kosova, I believe that the
problem here has to do with the capacity of the actual Albanian
leadership to control people and its disposition. I believe this is a
big problem.
I don't know, I hope what is happening in Belgrade and other
towns in Serbia right now, will stop by the end of this year and that
finally - by the beginning of January - the negotiations on the
status of Kosova will start. This would be the best option
to escape the most difficult variant - the presentation of the
Albanian corps as a separate factor in the game that would
irritate the Serbian substance, and, naturally, would offer the media
enough material to propagate that "Zajedno" has weakened
the Serbian people, therefore the enemy (Albanians) started
working on its final destruction. I believe that any involvement of
Albanians, would be a gain for Milosevic so he could continue playing
the role of the "peacemaking negotiator".
KOHA: A reason to join together and fight the Albanian enemy...
JANJIC: Yes, this is where Milosevic's real role would be
revealed. This would disclose his secret coalition with Seselj
and other Serb radicals. Milosevic and his SPS has always worked
through the Serbian Radical Party and some "independent"
individuals. I believe that the regime is trying to keep the
existing situation, at the same time is offering itself as a
column of guarantee of social safety. Naturally, I don't think
that keeping the present situation is in the interest of the
Albanians.
KOHA: However, in principle, you agree to safeguard the actual
course of the Albanian politics in Kosova?
JANJIC: A form of political activation is necessary. I don't
think I have the right to lecture on what should Albanians do in
Kosova, but maybe their leadership should become more active.
I'll try to be more specific: maybe the existing situation should be
used, to test both Zajedno and the government about their
willingness for negotiations. This would imply multi-party
Albanian-Serb talks. Whatever the decision is, the option of
having Albanians protest on the streets would be the most
dangerous one.
KOHA: What would the manoeuvres of the regime be in the coming
days?
JANJIC: A lot of noise in the republican parliament and a lot of
threats against Kosova - are only an illustration of the fear
that the government feels because of Zajedno's increasing
influence. In general, there are two possibilities for the
elimination of the protests: the beginning of an internal
political problem in which no one seems to be interested to be
part of; the second would be the expansion of the conflict to
Kosova and Macedonia. Or even Bosnia. But, this wouldn't be
allowed by the international community.
Consequently, there is no real manoeuvring space for the regime.
Therefore, I believe everything will be centered on long and
exhausting political truth and then negotiations will take place with
only one purpose: that Belgrade is preserved. All other
centers could fall gradually and pass into the hands of the
opposition.
This will either end with new elections, or the installation of the
opposition rule in the municipalities in which it won.
KOHA: What could Milosevic do?
JANJIC: What could he do? Convene the extraordinary congress of his
party; purge his staff. I believe that he will eliminate
Dragan Tomic, Speaker of the Parliament, Nebojsa Covic, mayor of
Belgrade; maybe he will replace the whole republican government.
But, whatever reorganization he will make in the future, he will not
be able to count on the support of the Radicals. He will be left with
Zajedno and be forced to cooperate with them.
I believe things are much more simpler today. It could be that
Milosevic will share the government with the opposition. But, in this
case, Zajedno could easily win the republican elections and win the
mandate to form the government. Naturally, this can
hardly happen if supposed that Kosova should become an
independent state. The coalition would have a difficult
institutional struggle in which it would need the two-thirds
majority. Finally, the Radicals would become part of everything -
and this would not be in the interest of the Albanians.
KOHA: How do you perceive the situation in Kosova?
JANJIC: What can today be perceived as a further complication of the
Albanian situation is the truth that actually in Serbia there are
minor possibilities to realize any joint Serbian platform
towards Kosova Albanians. I am not very optimistic to expect a
deep change, e.g., that Milosevic will sober up soon.